So that’s why liquidity could be shot
Words to live by?
In the past year American markets have digested the largest-ever initial public offering (SpaceX), equity raise by a public company (Google) or a foreign firm (SK Hynix), private-funding round (OpenAI) and private-debt deal (Broadcom), as well as most of the biggest bond issue in history (Amazon). There was the first $1trn exchange-traded fund, or ETF (Vanguard), a record-breaking cash pile (Berkshire Hathaway) and stock-buyback programme (Nvidia), and the consummation of the largest-ever leveraged buyout (Electronic Arts). Then there are the enormous mergers in railways (Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern), utilities (NextEra and Dominion Energy) and media (Paramount and Warner Bros Discovery)—the last of which led, this week, to the largest ever junk-bond offering, beating a record set only last week (SoftBank). New markets have been created out of thin air (for compute) or become much bigger (for predictions). Worries about massive corporate scandals (First Brands) and hedge-fund blow-ups (Situational Awareness), which would have once occupied investors’ attention for months, are steamrollered by the relentless, totalising and extraordinarily flexible machine that is American finance.”
An excellent passage, from The Economist.
I hadn’t thought about it like this, but giant deals have been hitting like new grandmas on Black Friday.
It is amazing that so much money has moved around in the last year, but some investors I know have said to me that they think liquidity might not have any more big moves in it.
That’s why I tend to think that Anthropic is being over-ambitious in going for a $2 trillion (or even $1.5 trillion) valuation in an IPO. That’s also why I think OpenAI might be smart to raise by other means and put off their IPO.
Time will tell, but we have asked a lot of American investors’ wallets.
By the way, I’m not saying these companies aren’t worth that kind of money, big picture. But right now, the cash just might not be there. And if the money isn’t available, they can’t get the price and they will sell themselves short.
Of course, it’s a conundrum. Each of them need a lot of money to keep building out infrastructure. On the other hand, they are both making lots of money.
—Brady Dale
October 3, 2026