For as long as I have been a tech reporter, there's been talk of "the bubble popping." This was a ve

For as long as I have been a tech reporter, there's been talk of "the bubble popping." This was a very big discourse in 2015, for example, because it seemed like a lot of venture money was going into startups. The amount seems like small beer now.

Because a bubble popped in 2000, everyone seems to expect every period of high growth must be another bubble.

Let me humbly suggest that it's good to watch for the differences as well as the similarities between one period and another. What has been different for a long time is that new companies eventually get to revenue (or they die). OpenAI and Anthropic have a lot of revenue. So much revenue! 

It could be true that they are building out too fast, that they are assuming too much future growth and it won't materialize and they will end up holding the bag for commitments they can't meet. That is true. Even still, even if the demand only stays around 2026 levels for a long time, that's a mouth watering amount of revenue! It's worth a lot! 

This time really is different. The finances could collapse, but, even if they do, something incredible will still be salvageable. For sure. I write this with 100% confidence. That's very different from 2000.

We're always fighting the last war, and fighting the last war is never the right move. Leave the herd.